![]() ![]() ![]() While Putin could ultimately disregard any doubts, Hardie says it will likely require Putin to grow considerably more desperate. "If offers the benefit of leaving doubt in Putin's mind," Hardie said. I think the administration rightly wants to avoid World War III," said Hardie.īecause of this, the Biden administration's "strategic ambiguity" on repercussions is the best available avenue, he argues. "Are we actually ready to do something more than sanctions? I tend to think we are probably not. American officials have publicly and privately warned Moscow against using nuclear weapons, and Hardie said they should also press countries the Kremlin might be more receptive to listening to - such as China and India - to send the same messages.īut the consequences Russia could expect to face are less clear. While both Hardie and Bergmann agree Putin doesn't appear ready to resort to the nuclear option, they say deterrence must be the priority. ![]() "And when the Russian president starts making nuclear threats, it's something everyone has to pay attention to." Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal," said Bergmann. "It's something that you have to take very seriously. If Putin's attempts to delay Ukraine's military progress fail, the most pressing question becomes whether he will make good on his threats to go nuclear - and what the U.S. outlook on the conflict, and predicted that other powers around the world - even those more closely aligned with Russia - would not be significantly swayed. One senior administration official called the referenda a "crass and desperate" maneuver that would not alter the U.S. And that Ukraine is going to advance militarily as it sees fit." "But I think support for Ukraine will remain strong. ![]() "Putin's hope is that this causes Ukraine and the West to freak out to give some pause about further advances," Bergmann said. But they say it's unlikely to prove effective. Putin's latest efforts towards annexation, coupled with promises to defend its land, are likely aimed at giving Ukraine second thoughts about pursuing its counteroffensive - and giving the West second thoughts about supporting it, Hardie and Bergmann said. "There's a total disconnect between the Russian government messaging that this is just some sort of tactical military effort in Ukraine, versus the need to suddenly rip men that have maybe at one time in their life served in the military for a year away from their families - many with children - and from their jobs, off to a battlefield where tens of thousands of people are dying," he said. And what's worse, he adds, is that Putin hasn't even officially called his invasion of Ukraine a war - still describing it as a "special military operation." This is one of the most incredibly disruptive things that can be done to a society."Īlthough economic penalties for the invasion continue to have a mounting impact, Bergmann says the move will bring the war home to many Russians for the first time. "Forcing people to go and fight in Ukraine is an extremely risky political decision. "What is clearly happening here is that the Russian military position in Ukraine is collapsing," he said. Putin's "partial mobilization" to send Russians who have gone through military training to serve in Ukraine is broadly seen as a tacit acknowledgement that his military is failing to accomplish Moscow's goals in Ukraine.īut Max Bergmann, a former State Department official and the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says it also puts Putin's control over his own country in question. ![]()
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